Gulf closes in NZ-Middle East trade, but the work’s not all done

Analysis: It appears Middle East trade deals are like buses: you spend an eternity waiting for one to arrive, then two show up at once.
Barely a month after Trade Minister Todd McClay announced the successful conclusion of trade negotiations with the United Arab Emirates, he has delivered more good news for NZ exporters with confirmation of a wider deal with the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council.
With more than half of roughly $2.6 billion in NZ exports to the region becoming tariff-free from day one (when the bilateral deal with the UAE is taken into account), rising to 99 percent within a decade, it was little wonder McClay was buzzing when Newsroom spoke to him about the news.
“This is the highest quality deal they have ever done, and the first with a major agricultural exporter … over the next 10 years, can we double trade with them? Absolutely.”
It’s been welcomed by exporters on Friday morning. Meat Industry Association chair Nathan Guy says the deal provides NZ with a competitive advantage as no other major red meat exporters to the six Gulf nations have secured such an agreement. 
Beef + Lamb NZ chair Kate Acland says the region is a fast-growing market, due to its population growth, rising incomes, and rapidly developing tourism sector. “Trade is the life blood of our sector and any move to make it easier to export is welcome.”An agreement with the Gulf states was first negotiated and “substantially concluded” in 2009, only to go on hold due to a moratorium on new trade deals, then fall victim to regional frictions.
While negotiations resumed in 2022, McClay says real headway was made when he met Gulf state ministers on the sidelines of a World Trade Organisation meeting in Abu Dhabi earlier this year. His message? Let’s get a deal done, or walk away once and for all.
While the deal is being applauded by Kiwi businesses, there are less palatable issues that can’t be ignored.
It is just over six years since the assassination of Saudi journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi by state agents, a killing which has resulted in little meaningful consequences for the country’s leadership, while there are broader concerns about the human rights records of the Gulf states.
McClay is at pains to emphasise the more progressive elements of the Gulf deal, including provisions related to labour standards and the climate, as well as a commitment to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. 
There is another woolly issue the minister has had to tackle: the lingering cloud left by the Saudi sheep deal negotiated under the last National government. Live sheep exports were apparently not raised by Saudi negotiators at any point during negotiations, presumably to the relief of their NZ counterparts given the extended fallout from the previous deal (which was struck in part to help get a Gulf trade deal across the line).
Governments are used to weighing up the desire for economic growth against concern over human rights and other areas – take the 2008 China FTA, for one – but that balancing act is only going to get harder with most of the ‘easy’ deals now done.
As Asia NZ Foundation chief executive and Newsroom Pro columnist Suzannah Jessep wrote last week, the dispute between Canada and India over the latter’s alleged role in the assassination of a Sikh activist may yet have ramifications for NZ’s hopes of a trade deal.
McClay and his negotiators have earned the right to pat themselves on the back and take a breath – but sterner tests yet lie in store.